Russia’s military intervention to Syria has transformed the geopolitical map in the Middle East. As Syria turn into a battlefield of power between United States of America and Russia, it will trigger a question whether Syria can turn to a peace that everyone wants or not.
The intervention that has been done by Russia recently has substantial challenges to the Obama administration’s plans, when Russia has already made some tactical gains in the civil war.
Not only that, this intervention will hamper the peace process in Syria that try to be conducted by United Nations. The news has revealed that recent efforts by the United Nations and others to organize new negotiations, beginning with localized cease-fires, have already begun to fall apart under Russian bombardment.
One thing for sure, this situation will change the Assad’s calculus on the political realm.
Is there any common goal to end the conflict in Syria?
The current situation has become a mystery for most of the policymakers, in order to find the best policy to end the horrible war in Syria. The situation on the field is so confusing, whether Russia and United States have a same vision to end the crisis in Syria or not. In one side, we have heard the notion that both Russia and United States has agreed to strike the Islamic State. In the other side, United States and Russia has made their own coalition in solving the problem.
Humbly speaking, I believe that it is too assumptive if we conclude that United States and Russia have a common vision to end the crisis, since both states have a different reaction towards President Syria, Bashar al-Assad. The chemistry has never been changed. America wants Assad to step down from its throne. Russia wants to preserve him, in order to maintain Russia’s influence on the region. Different interests on the both side will complicate the situation in Syria itself.
How about Bashar al-Assad? Bashar al-Assad himself will try to preserve its authority no matter how much its cost. Even he cannot do anything, in order to stabilize the situation. He keeps spending his money into the battlefield to fight the Jabhat al-Nusra and the other militant groups. From here, it is clear that Syria will maintain its relations to Russia and allies to end the conflict in Syria.
And, how about the militant groups in Syria? These militant groups will only complicate the situation on the field. Within these four years, they keep fighting in order to gain power without any assurance that their struggle will bring a victory to them. They will continue to complicate the situation, without any exact directions to achieve their goal.
From my analysis above, it is proven that there is no common goal between the stakeholders, in order to end the conflict in Syria. There is no such a clear vision from all party to end the conflict as soon as possible. Rather than finding a common ground, most of the party makes their own bloc with a purpose to achieve their vision. I believe that without a clear a vision and method to end the conflict, it will only bring Syria into a new Afghanistan.
Syria: A New Afghanistan?
It is such in a clear debate on who will be the actor in determining the victory in Syria. Can it be the militant groups that shape the war in Syria, such as what happen in Afghanistan during the Cold War? We do not know for sure, but I believe that both Russia and United States aware the significance of militant groups in supporting their action. However, it will depend on both country’s strategy and long-term goal in deciding the best strategy to end the war in Syria. All of us aware that supporting militant groups in the Middle East can turn into a boomerang for the supporting countries, such as what Al-Qaeda do. Still, it is too debatable whether supporting militant groups will be the best practice to end the conflict in Syria.
Syria will need a couple of year to stabilize their country. To see Syria in a stable condition, we need to find the clear winner in this conflict as happened in Afghanistan. A war can be ended, when we have found who are the true winner their country. I argue that Syria still has a many years of bloodshed to come, when we cannot identify exactly on determining the true winner on the field.
Russia, United States, Syria and all militant groups will stay in the uncertainty, whether their aims can be successful or not. This situation will predictably describe Syria in a couple of years to come.
The intervention that has been done by Russia recently has substantial challenges to the Obama administration’s plans, when Russia has already made some tactical gains in the civil war.
Not only that, this intervention will hamper the peace process in Syria that try to be conducted by United Nations. The news has revealed that recent efforts by the United Nations and others to organize new negotiations, beginning with localized cease-fires, have already begun to fall apart under Russian bombardment.
One thing for sure, this situation will change the Assad’s calculus on the political realm.
Is there any common goal to end the conflict in Syria?
The current situation has become a mystery for most of the policymakers, in order to find the best policy to end the horrible war in Syria. The situation on the field is so confusing, whether Russia and United States have a same vision to end the crisis in Syria or not. In one side, we have heard the notion that both Russia and United States has agreed to strike the Islamic State. In the other side, United States and Russia has made their own coalition in solving the problem.
Humbly speaking, I believe that it is too assumptive if we conclude that United States and Russia have a common vision to end the crisis, since both states have a different reaction towards President Syria, Bashar al-Assad. The chemistry has never been changed. America wants Assad to step down from its throne. Russia wants to preserve him, in order to maintain Russia’s influence on the region. Different interests on the both side will complicate the situation in Syria itself.
How about Bashar al-Assad? Bashar al-Assad himself will try to preserve its authority no matter how much its cost. Even he cannot do anything, in order to stabilize the situation. He keeps spending his money into the battlefield to fight the Jabhat al-Nusra and the other militant groups. From here, it is clear that Syria will maintain its relations to Russia and allies to end the conflict in Syria.
And, how about the militant groups in Syria? These militant groups will only complicate the situation on the field. Within these four years, they keep fighting in order to gain power without any assurance that their struggle will bring a victory to them. They will continue to complicate the situation, without any exact directions to achieve their goal.
From my analysis above, it is proven that there is no common goal between the stakeholders, in order to end the conflict in Syria. There is no such a clear vision from all party to end the conflict as soon as possible. Rather than finding a common ground, most of the party makes their own bloc with a purpose to achieve their vision. I believe that without a clear a vision and method to end the conflict, it will only bring Syria into a new Afghanistan.
Syria: A New Afghanistan?
It is such in a clear debate on who will be the actor in determining the victory in Syria. Can it be the militant groups that shape the war in Syria, such as what happen in Afghanistan during the Cold War? We do not know for sure, but I believe that both Russia and United States aware the significance of militant groups in supporting their action. However, it will depend on both country’s strategy and long-term goal in deciding the best strategy to end the war in Syria. All of us aware that supporting militant groups in the Middle East can turn into a boomerang for the supporting countries, such as what Al-Qaeda do. Still, it is too debatable whether supporting militant groups will be the best practice to end the conflict in Syria.
Syria will need a couple of year to stabilize their country. To see Syria in a stable condition, we need to find the clear winner in this conflict as happened in Afghanistan. A war can be ended, when we have found who are the true winner their country. I argue that Syria still has a many years of bloodshed to come, when we cannot identify exactly on determining the true winner on the field.
Russia, United States, Syria and all militant groups will stay in the uncertainty, whether their aims can be successful or not. This situation will predictably describe Syria in a couple of years to come.
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